Sunday, September 2, 2012

Could Israel Attack Iran as “October Surprise” – Would It Help Romney or Obama?

       Could Israel Attack Iran as “October Surprise” – Would It Help Romney or Obama?

2 Sept 2012
Global American® Series

It appears quite likely that Israel will attack IRAN’s nuclear sites, sooner or later. With an American election looming, and the possible re-election of President Obama who has discouraged a military attack on Iran, Israel could decide that “it’s make or break time” and launch an assault in October – an “October Surprise.”  If that happened, which candidate for President would it help the most: Romney or Obama?

In his nomination acceptance, Mitt Romney failed to mention the troops and two wars the U.S. has been involved in the past decade (he also did not mention the people being flooded by ISAAC the same week).  It was the first time since 1952 that a GOP candidate has failed to mention our military and the troops.  It’s mystifying how someone preparing to be “Commander in Chief” would overlook the troops. However, his advisers include the same neocons like John Bolton who worked for Pres. George W. Bush – and favors an attack on Iran.

So, the quandary for Israel is this: Attack NOW or wait until the election for U.S. President has been decided?  

Having been a TV terrorism adviser on 9/11, it is my opinion that if Israel attacks Iran in October, America will be drawn into it even if it doesn’t want to be. Iran will surely retaliate against shipping in the Persian Gulf and U.S. military vessels.  If that happens, I give the political advantage to Obama for three reasons:  (1) he rates higher on foreign policy than the Romney team (2) Americans don’t like to change President’s in wartime and (3) he’s the guy that killed Osama bin laden.

But let’s assume that Israel waited until the election and Romney wins. What then? Count on the neocons wanting to start a war with Iran just like they wanted the war with Iraq. How would that work out?

We already have a good idea. In 2002 the Pentagon conducted a simulated war with IRAN called Millennium Challenge 2002 (MC02) which is described in more detail at this Wikipedia link:

The war game was suspended after the U.S. lost 16 ships including an aircraft carrier and 20,000 Navy personnel.  Then they changed the rules. In real life there is not changing the rules for a better outcome. One of Iran’s weapons is a supersonic and would arrive within 30 seconds of launch, sinking an aircraft carrier and killing the 5,000 on board in less than one minute!

In other words, Iran is no Iraq, where in ten years of fighting the U.S. lost a total of 4,441 – a tiny fraction of what the U.S. could lose in one day fighting in Iran –not to mention the blow- back it would have throughout the Middle East that would move foreign policy to the top of the next President’s agenda. This is not an area for amateurs or an area that business and Congress experience brings any assets to the table.  

Our exhausted, battle weary troops don’t need another war to fight. And our taxpayers don’t need another unpaid for war that would grow our deficit by trillions above the $5 Trillion increase created by proposed Romney tax cuts for the wealthiest.

So, who would an Israeli “October Surprise” help the most?  We may soon find out – either before the election, or after.

NEXT: Our unemployment rate would fall to 6% TODAY if the 2 million available high tech jobs in the U.S. were filled by Americans, who don’t have the skills needed to fill them. Why isn’t that happening, and why aren’t the candidates talking about it?

Michael Fjetland
Global American Series
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