Could Israel Attack Iran as “October Surprise” – Would It
Help Romney or Obama?
2 Sept 2012
Global American® Series
It appears quite likely that Israel will attack IRAN’s
nuclear sites, sooner or later. With an American election looming, and the
possible re-election of President Obama who has discouraged a military attack
on Iran, Israel could decide that “it’s make or break time” and launch an
assault in October – an “October Surprise.”
If that happened, which candidate for President would it help the most:
Romney or Obama?
In his nomination acceptance, Mitt Romney failed to mention
the troops and two wars the U.S. has been involved in the past decade (he also
did not mention the people being flooded by ISAAC the same week). It was the first time since 1952 that a GOP
candidate has failed to mention our military and the troops. It’s mystifying how someone preparing to be “Commander
in Chief” would overlook the troops. However, his advisers include the same
neocons like John Bolton who worked for Pres. George W. Bush – and favors an
attack on Iran.
So, the quandary for Israel is this: Attack NOW or wait
until the election for U.S. President has been decided?
Having been a TV terrorism adviser on 9/11, it is my opinion
that if Israel attacks Iran in October, America will be drawn into it even if
it doesn’t want to be. Iran will surely retaliate against shipping in the
Persian Gulf and U.S. military vessels.
If that happens, I give the political advantage to Obama for three
reasons: (1) he rates higher on foreign
policy than the Romney team (2) Americans don’t like to change President’s in
wartime and (3) he’s the guy that killed Osama bin laden.
But let’s assume that Israel waited until the election and
Romney wins. What then? Count on the neocons wanting to start a war with Iran
just like they wanted the war with Iraq. How would that work out?
We already have a good idea. In 2002 the Pentagon conducted
a simulated war with IRAN called Millennium Challenge 2002 (MC02)
which is described in more detail at this Wikipedia link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
The war game was suspended after the U.S. lost 16 ships
including an aircraft carrier and 20,000 Navy personnel. Then they changed the rules. In real life there
is not changing the rules for a better outcome. One of Iran’s weapons is a
supersonic and would arrive within 30 seconds of launch, sinking an aircraft
carrier and killing the 5,000 on board in less than one minute!
In other words, Iran is no Iraq, where in ten years of fighting
the U.S. lost a total of 4,441 – a tiny fraction of what the U.S. could lose in
one day fighting in Iran –not to mention the blow- back it would have
throughout the Middle East that would move foreign policy to the top of the
next President’s agenda. This is not an area for amateurs or an area that
business and Congress experience brings any assets to the table.
Our exhausted, battle weary troops don’t need another war to
fight. And our taxpayers don’t need another unpaid for war that would grow our
deficit by trillions above the $5 Trillion increase created by proposed Romney tax
cuts for the wealthiest.
So, who would an Israeli “October Surprise” help the
most? We may soon find out – either before
the election, or after.
NEXT: Our unemployment rate would fall to 6% TODAY if the 2
million available high tech jobs in the U.S. were filled by Americans, who don’t
have the skills needed to fill them. Why isn’t that happening, and why aren’t
the candidates talking about it?
Michael Fjetland
Global American Series
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