A
bright spot has emerged on the eve of the 12th anniversary of 9/11
(a day I spent entirely in a TV studio giving analysis), Americans are war
weary. Who wouldn’t be after a decade-plus of fighting in Afghanistan? Over $5
trillion spent on war in Iraq which produced no weapons of mass destruction but
it did produce nearly 5,000 American war dead, tens of thousands of injured
service men and women. So is Syria just
another Iraq? What impact does it have on American security?
Syria
is not Iraq for one simple reason: Syria DOES have weapons of mass destruction.
It holds the world’s largest stockpile of chemical weapons outside of Russia
and the U.S. And Mr. Assad’s army has
been using them. But is this a threat to America?
Yes,
because if America does nothing about the use of a weapon banned for nearly a
century (since the end of WWI) then the message to Iran is clear. Cross all the
red lines you want in building a nuclear bomb – nothing will happen to
you. A nuclear Iran is a threat to
Israel, America’s strongest ally in a Middle East. The surrounding countries
have fragmented into fragile governments as dictators fall and sectarian (as in
religious) strife has taken over. Sunnis killing Shia, Alawhites (Assad’s
Muslim sect) killing Sunnis. Each scrambles for power as the weapons of war that
fill warehouses in Egypt, Syria, Libya, etc.
Doing
nothing could lead to bad actors getting their hands on these chemical
stockpiles and other weapons, which could end up being used on the streets of
America – easily smuggled in one of the millions of shipping containers
imported to the USA each year.
However,
an unexpected bright spot has emerged. The threat of a military strike against
Assad has produced a surprise turnaround. Now Syria wants to sign the Chemical
Weapons treaty – it is one of only eight countries in the world that hasn’t
signed it (North Korea is another).
You
can bet this would not have occurred if the President didn’t look serious about
a strike (despite Congress ducking for cover.)
It remains to be seen if this is just a ploy to delay a strike that
would deprive a dictator of some of his toys – jets and tanks used to bomb
civilians, killing over 100,000 so far.
However, if it will get Syria out of the chemical weapons business, then
America’s interests are well served. We’ll find out more tonight when the
President addresses the nation.
I
shot a TV interview on the subject of Syria yesterday. It’s short and won’t
blow your gaskets but you should see it—since it’s by someone who has actually
worked Syria –me! The link is here:
You
can sign up for updates at the blog since this is not over yet. Anything could
happen.
Michael
Fjetland
Global
American Series
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